John C. Thompson, the President of the Mackenzie Institute in Toronto, Canda, said in a research paper that the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) after its possible military beat at the hands of the Sri Lanka Army could morph into a major trans-national criminal country and all those countries who allowed them to function could now pay a high price for having done so.
The Mackenzie document said, "Considering the origins of the LTTE and main basis of funding for the last 25 years, much of their international equipment could very easily morph into a major trans-national criminal empire. For Sri Lankans, there might be some perverse soothe in this - all those nations that let the Tigers operate somewhat freely for many years will now pay a higher price for having done so."
The paper further said, "Ironically, the end of the Tiger insurgency in Sri Lanka might well strengthen their hold on Diaspora communities."
The paper focusing on what could come following the military defeat of the Tigers said, the organized criminal territory of the LTTE among the Diaspora communities has been carefully listening carefully on supporting the Tigers on Sri Lanka. " Police officers in Western Europe, Canada and Australia who monitor Tamil organized crime have seen little sign of pro-Tiger community leaders living the high life usually linked with prearranged crime leaders. But narcotics, "War-Taxes", smuggling, and other enterprises generate a lot of money and disburse for the Tiger's political apparatus. Those activists are unlikely to want to seek honest work."
The report declared , that first, the hit of their rebel forces and the loss of their refuge areas strength not end the violence. There will always be room for a conventional terrorist movement until the look of a new opportunity to create guerrilla units. As usual, their first focus might carry on to be the elimination of frank Tamils who feel the best hope for their people lies within the law and the Sri Lankan political system.
Declaring that LTTE might not say publicly a dignified defeat the report said, "Instead the Tigers appear to be about to retreat into the comforting myth of a religious victory as an alternative to a physical defeat."
The report further said, "On November 27th, 2008, the Tiger apparatus abroad is expected to rejoice their movement's "Heroes Day". Prabahakaran will probably bring his usual radio address. It might be via an audiotape this time lest an Air Force smart bomb has his name chalked on the covering if he shows up at a radio station. There is going to be another change to the LTTE's usual observances. The word is already circulating through the leadership of the Diaspora that this year's Heroes Day theme is to be "Our land might be taken, but our aspiration cannot be defeated."
With certainty the paper predicted, " Now, after decades of warfare, the 25-year old Tiger rebel force is facing defeat, and what comes next may make known even more of the character of the movement behind them."
On the ominous future of the LTTE leader Prabhakaran the report said, "As a enigmatic man with a cautiously crafted persona, a quasi-public life with limits on his group will almost certainly not be to his taste. Staying in Sri Lanka, however, would mean dodging from refuge to refuge with a designated task-force hunting him; and there might only be one ending to that story."
The report said, "After 25 years, the Sri Lankan military has the tools; technology and management it needs to finally defeat the LTTE's guerrilla forces. Sanctuary areas on the Island that have extended been held by the Tigers have fallen. The Tigers' famous bunker complexes in the jungle have been bare by new sensor systems and blasted open by smart bombs. The unofficial LTTE capital, the town of Killinochchi- not withstanding claims that it is a "Tamil Stalingrad" could soon fall; and whole areas of Sri Lanka have been free of LTTE attacks for months."
The account added, "There are threatening signs that the Tiger management recognizes that the writing is on the wall for their guerrilla forces in the field and the sanctuary areas they have long held."
But in a warning to the Canadians the report said, "As for the Canadian government, if the Tamils who at home here from Sri Lanka are ever to be Canadians quite than Tiger supporters in exile, then the power of the LTTE's fronts will have to be broken. Moreover, given the international diversity of our prearranged criminal societies"
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